A US-based operator preparing to enter a specific dining category faced an incumbent that looked structurally unbeatable. Rather than accept that read at face value, the client worked with Kairos to test it before committing capital to a new market.
The Opportunity
Reading past an incumbent's shadow
Before committing to specific US markets, the client's leadership needed a credible view of how this category actually behaved — a category where one incumbent brand had become the default reference point for this type of full-service restaurant in the United States.
That incumbent's modeled share of category demand was substantial, and separate analysis found its category position to be structurally stable — holding largely regardless of marketing activity. A second, already-established brand in the category held a meaningfully smaller share by comparison.
On the surface, that combination looked like a closed category: one brand's position appeared fixed, and the remaining share was already claimed. Leaders needed to know whether entering meant competing for scraps of an already-divided market, or whether meaningful, untapped demand still existed beneath that surface read. The strategic ambition centered on understanding the actual mechanics of category demand — what drove visits, which occasions mattered, and where a new brand could realistically compete — before allocating marketing budget or selecting a market.
The Solution
Modeling demand across a live competitive set
Kairos built six marketing-mix models using foot-traffic data from the incumbent and the established challenger, layered with search-engine traffic signals for the category's core search terms.
Because the client had not yet entered the US market, no historical performance data of its own existed to model. The analysis instead used publicly observable behavior from two established brands in the category as a proxy for how American consumers already engage with this category.
The six models were built to answer three distinct questions: how much of total category demand came from passive traffic versus active marketing and search interest; which dates, search terms, and competitive dynamics moved each brand's share of that demand; and whether one brand's marketing activity measurably affected demand for the other.
Across the six models, a consistent pattern emerged: category demand was overwhelmingly shaped by marketing and search activity rather than fixed traffic; brand-level marketing produced spillover effects that lifted the category as a whole; and timing and search-term signals offered a concrete reference point for a new entrant's marketing calendar.
The Impact
A category built by marketing, not defended by it
The modeled decomposition attributed the large majority of total category demand to marketing activity and search interest rather than fixed baseline traffic, reframing the client's central question from how much share could be taken from the incumbent to how much new demand marketing could create.
The models also surfaced a genuine category-expansion effect: each established brand's marketing activity was associated with meaningfully higher modeled demand for the other. For a new entrant, this signaled a market where the incumbent's continued advertising would keep expanding the addressable audience for the category, including for a new brand entering behind it.
Timing and search signals were similarly valuable. Search interest in both the category's core keywords and broader, related search terms carried real, measurable predictive weight — showing that category-level and brand-specific search signals both belong in a new entrant's marketing calendar.
What's Next
From category insight to a deepening partnership
This public-data analysis establishes a foundation the client can build on as it brings its own operating data into the model going forward.
